At 75 years, the American National Election Studies (ANES) now comprises data on a third of all presidential elections in U.S. history. Duke political scientist John Aldrich has written that the ANES has provided a research design and common core measurement instrument to study dynamics of public opinion and collective action over an increasingly long historical sweep: “This time-series is unprecedented in its breadth of questions, length of time, and commonality of research design and instrumentation,” he wrote in “The ANES as ‘Gold Standard’ for Survey Research in the Twenty-First Century” (March 2017). “From this, an understanding of historical dynamics is only now becoming fully possible.”

In recognition of the ANES’s 75th anniversary, the Center for Political Studies reached out to scholars to ask what the study has revealed about key moments, decades, or patterns in American history. Their answers captured two prevailing themes: Increasing polarization and partisan alignment around issues of race. Here are a few of the responses we received:

The first thing that comes to mind is the major realignment of the American party system that occurred (mostly during the 1960s) because of the civil rights movement, desegregation, and busing. Everything we know about affective polarization among the general public comes from survey data, much of it gathered by the ANES. We are now learning about the alarming recent growth of conspiracy beliefs and anti-democratic populism beliefs among the American public. –Richard R. Lau, Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University

“The first thing that comes to mind is the major realignment of the American party system that occurred (mostly during the 1960s) because of the civil rights movement, desegregation, and busing. Everything we know about affective polarization among the general public comes from survey data, much of it gathered by the ANES. We are now learning about the alarming recent growth of conspiracy beliefs and anti-democratic populism beliefs among the American public.”

– Richard R. Lau, Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University


“The ANES has been pivotal in the emergence of research on polarization – especially work on the way partisans feel about both their own party, and the other party. It is only through the over-time aspect of the ANES – and the consistency in measurement – that scholars saw fundamental changes in people’s feelings toward the opposing party.”

– Yanna Krupnikov, Professor of Communication and Media, University of Michigan; Faculty Affiliate, Center for Political Studies


DAVID O. SEARS UCLA Donald Kinder used the ANES to make a strong case for changes in the nature of white racism in America and for its continued political clout. [Others] used it effectively to demonstrate how racialized the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections were. Nick Valentino and I used it... to make a case for the gradual partisan realignment of the white South in the last half of the 20th century around racial issues.

“Donald Kinder used the ANES to make a strong case for changes in the nature of white racism in America and for its continued political clout. Then Michael Tesler and I (2010) and Kinder and Dale-Riddle (2011) used it effectively to demonstrate how racialized the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections were. Nick Valentino and I (2005) used it in a more historical sense, to make a case for the gradual partisan realignment of the white South in the last half of the 20th century around racial issues”

– David O. Sears, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, UCLA


In the 1990s, political elites became more polarized and began voting in bodies. Voting across party lines began disappearing. Citizens learned from these votes what it meant to be a Democrat or a Republican and began to divide in the same way. …It’s impossible to disentangle this from the rise of cable TV with commentaries on issues from the Left and the Right. These shifts in the presentation of politics on TV occurred simultaneously with changes in Congressional voting caused a change in voting behavior.” –Michael Traugott, Center for Political Studies

I think that the single most important contribution of ANES to the study of American politics was the concept of party identification. In the 1940s, the study of US politics was done through demographic analysis at the local level. Then in the 1948 and 1952 studies, Michigan began to organize national studies of the electorate. In 1952 they started measuring attitudes about Eisenhower and Stevenson and the role of parties, and with the “Michigan Model” they were able to move from group-level analysis to national analysis. You can’t see a study of the electorate now without a reference to the difference between Democrats and Republicans, and that can be traced directly back to the 1952 ANES study. …As elections have become more polarized, the ANES’ feeling thermometer questions measuring affective polarization have become increasingly important. In the 1990s, political elites became more polarized and began voting in bodies. Voting across party lines began disappearing. Citizens learned from these votes what it meant to be a Democrat or a Republican and began to divide in the same way. …It’s impossible to disentangle this from the rise of cable TV with commentaries on issues from the Left and the Right. These shifts in the presentation of politics on TV occurred simultaneously with changes in Congressional voting caused a change in voting behavior.” –Michael Traugott, Center for Political Studies

– Michael Traugott, Professor of Communication Studies, Research Professor, Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan